I strongly recommend two excellent papers by Emrah SÖYLEMEZ on using GIS programs to construct probability maps for SAR.
- Utility of GIS in Search and Rescue Operations
This 2003 case study (co-authored with Dr. Nurünnisa Usul) creates a probability map for an actual downed aircraft case using a motion model and GIS layer operations combined with some nice reasoning. (For example, no one has reported the downed aircraft in the last hour, so it's probably not on or near the villages and roads in the area.)
- GIS-Based Search Theory Application for Search and Rescue Planning
Last night while preparing some slides, I wrote to the author to ask if he had other work, and he pointed me to his April 2007 Master's Thesis. So far, I have only paged through it, but it clearly deserves a wide SAR audience.
Abstract for the Master's Thesis
Search and Rescue (SAR) operations aim at finding missing objects with minimum time in a determined area. There are fundamentally two problems in these operations. The first problem is assessing highly reliable probability distribution maps, and the second is determining the search pattern that sweeps the area from the air as fast as possible.
In this study, geographic information systems (GIS) and multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are integrated and a new model is developed based upon Search Theory in order to find the position of the missing object as quickly as possible with optimum resource allocation. Developed model is coded as a search planning tool for the use of search and rescue planners. Inputs of the model are last known position of the missing object and related clues about its probable position.
In the developed model, firstly related layers are arranged according to their priorities based on subjective expert opinion. Then a multi criteria decision method is selected and each data layer is multiplied by a weight corresponding to search expert’s rank. Then a probability map is established according to the result of MCDA methods. In the second phase, the most suitable search patterns used in literature are applied based on established probability map. The developed model is a new approach to shortening the time in SAR operations and finding the suitable search pattern for the data of different crashes.
(Note: I revised this post between last night and this morning, since the first was quite abbreviated.)